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45 Days from Pohang to Georgia — Safety Stock at an Intercontinental Cathode Interface Is Driven by Lead-Time Variability, Not Demand
SK On’s roughly KRW 1.0742 trillion LFP cathode contract with POSCO Future M (2027–2029, for its Georgia ESS cell line) puts a continent and an ocean crossing between the materials and cell plants. Under an assumed scenario (45-day lead time, σL 7 days, 98.1 t/day), safety stock in front of the Georgia cell line is about 1,138 t, 99.1% of which comes from the lead-time variability term. Halving lead-time variability cuts it to 577 t; halving demand variability leaves it at 1,136 t. At an intercontinental interface, the management variable is the spread of arrival times, not the demand forecast.


